AGP Executive Report

AI Valuations: Anthropic reportedly generated $16.8 billion in quarterly revenue, up 50% from the prior quarter, and reached positive cash flow. But slowing growth could test hopes for a $2 trillion IPO valuation. CoreWeave’s six-month share decline of 46% and falling bond prices have also raised concerns about how AI expansion is being financed. Portfolio Strategy: Mediolanum International Funds is neutral on equities and regions, slightly overweight duration and positive on high-yield bonds, saying markets have remained resilient despite Middle East tensions. Crypto and Rates: Bitcoin’s fall after sticky U.S. inflation underscored its sensitivity to interest rates and liquidity, while BIS research found higher bank deposit rates were associated with slower stablecoin growth. AI in Asset Management: A Morgan Stanley and Oliver Wyman report found just 8% of fund managers saw measurable gains in investment returns from AI, despite widespread adoption for research and operational efficiency.

Oil Investment: Venezuela says 61 agreements could attract nearly $76 billion over five years, including a U.S. deal covering 17 oilfields and plans for 250 drilling rigs. The figure is projected investment, not funding already secured. West Africa Infrastructure: Tony Elumelu is backing a proposed $15 billion project pipeline for the region; 26 projects worth more than $10 billion have been shortlisted for potential financing. Nigeria’s Banking Sector: Central Bank Governor Olayemi Cardoso cited inflation falling to 14.63% and reserves topping $55 billion, while banks raised ₦4.65 trillion in fresh capital—mostly from domestic investors—as signs of improving confidence. Pakistan’s Digital Investment: Telecom operators say commercial power tariffs threaten $2 billion in planned 5G and fibre investment over three years, along with expansion of AI-ready data centres.

India’s Investment Outlook: Deloitte expects GDP growth of 7.1–7.3% in FY27, citing signs that private investment is gaining momentum, though geopolitical and energy-price risks remain. Jio Platforms’ planned IPO has reportedly drawn ₹2.5 lakh crore in early investor interest—more than eight times the issue size—but the figure is not confirmed subscriptions. AI Spending Under Scrutiny: A sharp tech-led sell-off has revived concerns that heavy AI investment may fail to deliver returns. Big Tech is projected to spend more than $720 billion on capital projects this year, while private loans to AI firms have topped $200 billion by some estimates. Investor Confidence: Ghana is courting Asian investors after inflation eased to 5.2% and Moody’s upgraded its credit rating. Nigeria’s finance minister and central bank chief say they will maintain reforms, including ending fuel subsidies and multiple exchange rates, to protect stability and investor confidence. Banking Goes Digital: Bulgaria’s Postbank plans to add access to stocks, ETFs, commodities and crypto to its mobile app in early 2027, including fractional investing.

AI Market Repricing: The Nasdaq suffered its worst week in 18 months as investors questioned the debt behind the AI boom. Anthropic’s expected IPO valuation has reportedly cooled to about $1.5 trillion from $2 trillion, despite strong revenue growth, as investors weigh slowing momentum and soaring costs. BlackRock’s Inflows: BlackRock drew $205 billion in third-quarter net inflows, lifting assets under management to $15.5 trillion. Its push into private credit and infrastructure is helping expand recurring-fee businesses. Safe-Haven Demand: Rising government debt and borrowing costs are prompting some investors to diversify from sovereign bonds into gold, though bonds remain a source of income for portfolios. Shareholder Risk: Gildan Activewear faces a proposed securities class action alleging it used excess inventory shipments to inflate revenue growth; the company’s statements and controls are under scrutiny.

AI Credit Risk: CoreWeave’s slump has sharpened concern over AI infrastructure debt: investment advisers reportedly quintupled their holdings of its bonds this year, while lenders are demanding higher yields. Anthropic investors are also lowering IPO valuation expectations amid slower revenue growth and questions about AI spending. Banking & Funds: India’s Supreme Court upheld a ruling overturning YES Bank’s 2020 write-down of ₹8,415 crore in AT1 bonds, raising hopes of recovery. Some mutual funds have paused new subscriptions to affected schemes while they assess how any recovery would be allocated. Investor Protection: Kenya’s capital-markets regulator warned the public about two unregulated investment schemes under investigation, urging investors to check firms’ licences before committing funds. Capital Flows: EverWind announced plans for a proposed $10 billion data-centre and wind-energy investment in Nova Scotia, including an $8 billion campus backed by a 20-year lease with an unnamed AI developer.

AI Valuations: Anthropic’s prospective IPO valuation is reportedly under review near $1.5 trillion, down from about $2 trillion, after quarterly revenue growth slowed to 45%, reaching $16.8 billion. Adding to concerns about AI financing, JPMorgan and Goldman raised the yield on a $5 billion AI-infrastructure loan above 11% to attract buyers. Market Turmoil: South Korea’s KOSPI fell 7.57% as foreign investors sold about 5 trillion won in shares. Investors also shifted toward Treasuries amid AI debt concerns and inflation uncertainty. Funds and Regulation: Several Indian fund houses halted new investments in gold ETF fund-of-funds from Oct. 16. SEBI cancelled Capital Stroke Investment Service’s adviser registration and barred it for five years, citing promised profits and false claims. Cross-Border Funds: Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC launched two GIFT City funds investing in emerging-market and Indian equities through underlying funds.

Market Shift: AI-financing worries sent tech shares lower on Thursday as investors moved into bonds; the 10-year Treasury yield fell 14 basis points to 5.05%, while debt concerns weighed on data-center operator CoreWeave. Data-Center Costs: Malaysia plans to require data-center investors to fund transmission upgrades needed for their power demand, aiming to shield existing electricity users from added costs. Private Credit: Liberty Mutual Investments and Elda River Capital formed a partnership targeting up to $500 million in loans to energy, infrastructure and renewables businesses. Retirement-Fund Investment: Malaysia’s KWAP says its RM750 million allocation for student housing will be deployed gradually, subject to commercial due diligence and risk-return reviews. Retail Investing: Ireland plans a tax-efficient investment account from next July, allowing annual deposits up to €12,000, with the first €50,000 accumulated tax-free. Ghana’s Pitch: The central bank governor told investors inflation had fallen to 5.2% and the policy rate had been cut by 14 percentage points, citing improved conditions for investment.

AI IPO Watch: Anthropic told investors quarterly revenue reached $16.8 billion, but slowing growth, heavy losses and huge computing costs are raising questions ahead of a possible Nasdaq listing. Banking & Litigation: TD Bank and executives must face most investor claims alleging they downplayed compliance problems tied to the bank’s $3 billion anti-money-laundering settlement. Fund Flows: BlackRock’s third-quarter profit rose to $1.66 billion as investor inflows beat expectations. Cross-Border Investing: ESMA found 15.5 million EU and EEA retail clients used investment firms based in other member states in 2025, nearly double the 2023 total. Chips & Capital: GlobalFoundries plans two New York facilities, a project worth up to $21 billion and the third investment under Japan’s U.S. trade deal. Markets & Energy: Oil prices fell as investors weighed risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz against the prospect of eased U.S. sanctions on some oil tankers.

Fund Liquidity: Malaysia’s AmanahRaya Investment Management suspended subscriptions, redemptions and switches in three unit trusts amid heavier withdrawal requests and credit concerns, saying it needs time to assess liquidity and valuations. Market Watch: Indian shares ended lower as crude neared $106 and foreign investor selling weighed, despite broader advances on the BSE. AI Spending: The IMF says AI infrastructure investment is supporting growth but warns that uncertain returns and debt risks could unsettle markets. Cross-Border Funds: Qatar’s Lesha Bank and ChinaAMC plan a Sharia-compliant China equity fund, expanding access to Chinese stocks for regional investors. Capital Flows: Malaysia reported 27 approved data-centre projects worth RM225.97 billion, with most still under construction.

AI Finance: Nvidia’s role as chip supplier, investor and financier to AI companies is raising questions about how much of the boom rests on genuine customer demand; grid upgrades could require $5.9 trillion through 2035, while the IMF warns weaker returns on AI investment could unsettle markets. Bank Earnings: Citi’s profit jumped 40% on stronger investment banking, services and wealth revenue, even as JPMorgan shares slipped amid slower investment-banking momentum. Cross-Border Capital: The White House touted up to $200 billion in planned South Korean investment in the U.S., including $54 billion linked to Alaska LNG, but Seoul says that project is not finalized. Fund Liquidity: Three investors allege a private-equity fund reneged on redeeming $2 million in cash and plans to transfer shares in a speculative real-estate venture instead. Investment Oversight: The U.S. Treasury issued its first penalty under the outbound investment security program, signaling enforcement risks for cross-border deals.

Bank Earnings: Citigroup beat third-quarter profit estimates as investment banking, services and wealth revenue strengthened; trading gains were modest and fell from the prior quarter. Market Shift: Chinese chipmaker CXMT’s planned memory products rattled investors, sending major memory-stock names lower and stirring concern over crowded AI trades and future pricing power. Private Markets: SWBC launched a second Sun Belt multifamily fund targeting $200 million, after raising $125 million for its first fund. IPO Rules: Ethiopia limited participation in Dangote Petroleum’s proposed securities offer to qualified investors, barring a general-public sale without regulatory approval. Public Investment: Sri Lanka plans procurement reforms to speed capital spending after using less than 30% of its annual allocation in the first nine months.

Global Outlook: The IMF expects 3.1% growth in 2026, with AI investment offsetting the energy shock, but warned that conflict, inflation and debt pose growing risks. Markets: U.S. stocks finished mixed as investors braced for inflation data and major bank earnings; oil prices and geopolitical tensions kept pressure on sentiment. Investor Flows: Indian equity funds drew ₹38,307 crore in September, a five-month high, while SIP contributions hit a record ₹32,490 crore—even as small- and mid-cap funds led inflows. Crypto Rules: TD Cowen expects formal CFTC proposals no earlier than late Q1 2027, with final rules potentially delayed until early 2028. Capital Markets: Dangote Refinery extended its IPO to October 27, citing strong African investor demand.

Markets and Banks: US stocks opened nearly flat as investors weighed rising oil prices and geopolitical risks ahead of results from JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citi, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. South Korea’s KOSPI fell 3.7% as AI valuation worries hit chipmakers. India’s IPO Boom: Blackstone says India is among the world’s easiest markets for IPOs, as retail participation and private-equity exits deepen. The firm expects its assets under management there to double to $100 billion. Malaysia’s Investment Incentives: Budget 2027 proposals would extend tax relief for angel investors in early-stage tech firms through 2030 and continue accelerated tax allowances for machinery and digital technology spending. US-China Investment Rules: The US Treasury issued its first penalty under outbound investment restrictions, fining Plug and Play parent Amidi $200,000 for failing to report a small investment in a Chinese AI robotics company.

Market Pulse: Global equities gained last week, with the S&P 500 up 0.6% and financials among the leading sectors. Investors face a busy U.S. bank earnings week, while elevated bond yields, oil above $104 a barrel and geopolitical risks remain in view. ETF Flows: Investors put more than $1 trillion into U.S. ETFs in the first half of 2026. Vanguard attracted about $260 billion, reflecting demand for low-cost, market-tracking funds. South Africa: Bond strength and removal from the FATF grey list are lifting the country’s investment appeal, but sustained inflows will depend on stronger institutions, public safety and delivery on government commitments. Nigeria Risk: The Nigerian Economic Summit Group warns that insecurity is raising business costs and financing risks, discouraging long-term investment in agriculture, energy and infrastructure. China: Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in the first eight months, with private investment down 10.1%. Beijing is shifting its focus toward higher-quality investment, including high-tech manufacturing. Digital Markets: Securitize launched tokens tied to 12 U.S. stocks on Solana, backed one-for-one by shares and available to eligible investors in approved regions.

Market Support: China’s securities regulator is seeking more long-term investment, higher dividends and new market-friendly measures as the CSI 300 hits a one-year low and regulators try to steady shares. AI Finance: SoftBank founder Masayoshi Son is seeking up to $100 billion from Gulf investors for a fund to buy traditional businesses and upgrade them with AI and robotics, amid scrutiny of SoftBank’s $65 billion OpenAI commitment. Market Risks: The IMF says tokenized stocks have been about 1.5 times as volatile as traditional shares, highlighting risks as digital-asset trading expands beyond regular market hours. India Outlook: Foreign investors sold Rs 45,125 crore of Indian equities in six sessions this month. Inflation data, IT earnings, crude prices above $100 a barrel and global yields are set to shape trading. IPO Watch: OPay disclosed a $532.9 million short-term investment portfolio ahead of its planned U.S. listing, while Reliance’s Jio Platforms is pitching a potential record-sized Indian IPO to global investors. Cross-Border Capital: Indonesia and Egypt are pursuing an economic partnership agreement and a joint investment fund for strategic projects.

Market Pulse: Gold has fallen about 5% this year as rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar make the non-yielding metal less attractive, though central-bank buying may support prices. India’s Investment Push: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman promoted Indian opportunities in Singapore, while Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar discussed deeper investment ties with Ethiopia. Business Climate: Bihar’s new law aims to replace multiple pre-operation permits with self-declaration, time-bound approvals and a single investment-clearance authority. Capital Markets: Kuwait is adding government sukuk to its financing options, aiming to broaden its investor base and develop domestic capital markets. Investor Protection: Nigeria’s SEC warned that WayvePay is not authorised to solicit investments, after the platform promoted access to the Dangote Refinery IPO. Trade: China and the EU agreed to continue talks on market access and trade concerns, with their next consultation scheduled for March 2027.